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US Labour Data Due
The latest round of US jobs data is due later today and traders will be closely watching the release on the back of the Fed recently hiking rates. Ahead of the release, the US Dollar has paused, reflecting some uncertainty among traders. While the Fed is no longer expected to hike again this year, USD has been rallying recently on safe-haven demand linked to weaker US data and the recent Fitch credit rating downgrade.
Market Reaction
In terms of likely market reactions, if today’s labour market data shows weakness, rate cut projections for next year will no doubt be brought forward, feeding into a weaker USD, overriding safe-haven demand near-term. As an outside scenario if we see any strong upside surprise on the data this should marginally support USD near-term, underpinning any residual hawkish Fed expectations.
Today’s Forecasts
Looking at the forecasts for today, the market is looking for the NFP to print 205k, down from 209k prior. Average hourly earnings are forecast at 0.3$ from 0.4% prior while the unemployment rate is forecast unchanged at 3.6%. If data is confirmed at this level or below this should see USD peeling off a little near-term.
Technical Views
DXY
For now, the index is stalled at a test of the bear channel top following the breakout above 101.22. While this support level holds, the focus is on a further push higher and a test of the 103.48 level next. If price falls back below 101.22, however, 99.46 is the next support to note.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.