Core CPI Rises

The US Dollar is pushing higher midweek on the back of yesterday’s US inflation figures. Annualised headline CPI was seen at 3.1% last month, lower than the 3.4% seen a month prior but above the 2.9% the market was looking for. Month on month, headline CPI was unchanged at 0.3%. However, core inflation was seen rising to 0.4% from 0.3% prior.  

Easing Expectations Fading

The data has further strengthened the view that the Fed will not be cutting rates imminently, driving USD higher and weighing on risk assets. Pricing for a cut in May has now dropped to around 40%. While the market is still pricing in a cut in June, this remains highly vulnerable to change should inflation remain sticky around current levels.

Fed In Focus

The Fed has stressed that it is in no rush to ease rates and will keep them in restrictive territory for as long as needed in order to bring inflation down to target. With jobs data and other indicators remaining robust USD looks likely to remain supported near-term as the Fed sticks to its guns over rates. Unless CPI starts to fall at a faster pace again, June pricing is likely to start shifting lower, adding further support for the Dollar and creating stronger headwinds for risk assets.

Technical Views

DXY

The breakout above the 103.48 level continues to gather pace, supported by bullish momentum studies readings. Price is pushing higher still within the bull channel which has framed the move off 101.22 lows, now testing the 104.95 level. If bulls can break higher here, 105.91 will be the next level to watch.