Gold Pushing Higher
Gold prices are soaring on Monday with the futures market up around 2% on the day already. The move higher comes on the back of the consolidation we’ve seen over the last two weeks following the correction lower from YTD highs. With demand now kicking in again, the focus is on a return to highs and a resumption of the record bull trend we’ve seen this year.
Weak US Data & Fed Easing Expectations
The driver behind the move looks to be a renewed focus on Fed easing expectations following some weaker-than-forecast US data last week. The challenger job cuts data last week revealed a surge in layoffs, which hit 20-year highs last month, saw USD coming under fresh selling pressure. With traders now pricing in a roughly 65% chance of a rate cut in December, gold prices look likely to remain supported for now. Data last week also showed a sharp drop in consumer sentiment which hit its lowest level on record over November. Given the lack of data amidst the ongoing US govt shutdown, these data points have hit harder than usual with gold prices rallying accordingly.
Shutdown Talks
Looking ahead this week, traders will be watching to see if there are any positive headlines from the shutdown talks between congress over the weekend. A group of democrats have been pushing support for a compromise bill aimed at restoring Fed funding ahead of Thanksgiving. If successful, this should help fuel a surge in risk appetite ultimately capping gold gains for now. If the bill fails, however, gold prices could move firmly higher.
Technical Views
Gold
The correction lower has found fresh support into a retest of the broken 1.61% Fib level. While this area holds, the focus is on a return to highs, supported by momentum studies which are reversing higher now also. 4,200 will be the first hurdle for bulls ahead of the YTD highs.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.