SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 18/7/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~35 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6220/30
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6384 SUP 6204
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6340/30
DAILY RANGE RES 6400 SUP 6283
2 SIGMA RES 6417 SUP 6180
GAP LEVELS 6147/6077/6018/5843/5741/5710
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 19.25
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER - 6302
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong and consistent upward movement.
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES: RELIEF RALLY
FICC and Equities | 17 July 2025 | 9:01 PM UTC
- S&P 500: +54bps, closed at 6,297 with MOC flows of -$4.7B to SELL.
- Nasdaq 100 (NDX): +74bps, closed at 23,078.
- Russell 2000 (R2K): +120bps, closed at 2,253.
- Dow Jones: +52bps, closed at 44,484.
Trading volume reached 18.3 billion shares across U.S. equity exchanges, surpassing the year-to-date daily average of 16.8 billion shares.
- VIX: -373bps at 16.52.
- Crude Oil: +188bps at $67.63.
- US 10-Year Yield: Unchanged at 4.45%.
- Gold: -26bps at $3,338.
- DXY: +26bps at 98.65.
- Bitcoin: -59bps at $119,269.
The relief rally was driven by favorable macroeconomic data, including stronger retail sales, lower jobless claims, reduced import prices, and a robust Philly Fed outlook (15.9, its strongest reading in three years). Beta, laggards, and nonprofitable tech stocks showed strong outperformance. Hedge Fund VIP longs underperformed Most Short (GSPRHVMS) by -323bps.
Activity levels on the trading floor were moderate at a 5 on a 1-10 scale, finishing +265bps better to buy compared to the 20-day average of 61bps. Hedge fund flows were balanced, with supply concentrated in Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary, while demand emerged in Industrials and Healthcare. Long-only investors skewed toward selling, with ~$750mm in net supply, primarily in Financials and Technology sectors.
Key Watchlist for Tomorrow:
- University of Michigan sentiment report.
- Pre-market earnings from ALLY, ALV, AXP, CMA, HBAN, MMM, RF, SCHW, SLB, TFC.
AFTER THE BELL:
- NFLX: Dropped -3% after rising +2% earlier today. Revenue growth was solid (F2Q revenues at $11.08bn, +16% y/y or +17% y/y cc vs consensus $11.06bn), but concerns linger about whether performance justifies current valuations, even with FX tailwinds. Operating margins came in at 34%, slightly above guidance (~33%) and last quarter’s 32%.
DERIVATIVES:
Short-dated skew flattened as the market rally continued. Flows leaned toward the upside, with clients adding short-dated SPX call spreads and VIX put spreads. VIX rolldown steepened, and the desk recommends VIX Aug 2025 18/16.5 1x2 put spreads for 30c (1x5 max payout) as a strategy to capitalize on the rolldown. Volatility of volatility remains elevated, with breakeven downside at 15.3—a level not seen since before August last year.
Heading into tomorrow’s expiry, an estimated $2.8 trillion in notional options exposure will expire, including $1.5 trillion in SPX options and $660 billion in single stock options. The straddle for tomorrow closed at ~0.47%.
SUPERCAP TECH POSITIONING:
- NVDA (10/10): Up over 90% from its April lows and +25% YTD, Nvidia has regained favor with investors, supported by consistent positive industry data and strong global inflows. Expectations are high for another beat-and-raise quarter in late August.
- MSFT (9/10): Microsoft has emerged from an 18-month holding pattern, adding $650bn to its market cap this year (approaching $4T). Positioned to benefit from secular trends like AI, cloud consumption, and SaaS adoption, MSFT remains a core long for growth portfolios. Bulls are targeting mid-30s+ Azure growth this quarter.
- META (8.5/10): Sentiment remains positive, but caution has increased recently. Strong ad performance (boosted by AI efficiency) is expected, but ROI concerns are resurfacing due to hiring sprees and off-balance-sheet investments. Bulls anticipate robust top-line performance and guidance to justify spending trends.
- AMZN (8/10): A relative laggard (+3% YTD), Amazon faces tariff uncertainties (recently easing
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!