Mixed Start For Risk Markets
A choppy start to the week for global equities indices. A stronger US Dollar continues to hamper risk appetite although we have seen better two-way action today on the back of a rebound in US tech stocks, which is helping the broader risk complex. Markets were roiled last week by comments from Fed chair Powell who confirmed that a .5% rate hike is on the table for May. Commentary from the Fed, as evidenced by the recent FOMC minutes, has turned increasingly hawkish. With traders now anticipating a more aggressive course of tightening over the year, as compared with initial projections in early Q1, equities have come under fire.
Additionally, with the Fed and many other central banks now embarking on a course of tightening, in a bid to tackle soaring inflation, traders are starting to show concerns about the longer run impact on growth. With the global economy still battling COVID disruptions, significant supply chain issues, fresh lockdowns in China, the conflict in Ukraine and soaring inflation, many fear that tightening over the next 3 – 6 months will negatively impact growth.
Looking ahead this week, we have little in the way of tier one data aside from US GDP. As such, focus will be on a raft of second tier data, including PMI releases from the UK, US and eurozone. Any sign of weakness in these releases will no doubt weigh further on risk appetite near term.
Technical Views
DAX
For now, the DAX continues to hover around the 14170.79 level, sitting just below it as of writing. With price still trading within the bear channel, the focus is on a further move lower towards the 13672.31 level next and 13067.45 thereafter. Bulls will need to see a break back above the 14791.27 level to affect a shift in sentiment and bring MACD and RSI both back into bullish territory.
S&P 500
The reversal lower from the 4575.50 level has seen the S&P trading back down to test the long-term rising trend line from 2020 pandemic lows. With price holding at this level for now, bolstered by the 4221.25 level support, there is room for a continuation higher medium term, putting the focus on 4744 as a broader upside target. However, should we slip below 4221.25, this will put the focus on 4062.25 next.
FTSE
The sell off from the latest failed attempt at breaking 7691.6 has seen the market reversing below the 7558.7 level. For now, the market is holding support at the 7362.6 level. With both MACD and RSI bearish, the market is vulnerable to a deeper push lower with the rising trend line and 7241 the next big support area to watch.
NIKKEI
The rejection at 27422.9 has seen the market turning sharply lower once more. Price is now approaching support at the 26246 level and, with both MACD and RSI bearish, the focus is on a break lower here. Below that zone, the falling wedge low and 25595.3 support is the next support area to watch.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.